Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 2.803192 2.991919 3.200139 3.449742 3.744861 4.088228 4.526892
2025-02-16 2.542298 2.790641 3.082830 3.461428 3.955151 4.604889 5.584200
2025-02-23 2.332544 2.600255 2.926923 3.370531 3.987180 4.874067 6.408465
2025-03-02 2.218824 2.506139 2.867976 3.380649 4.138335 5.334008 7.776184
2025-03-09 2.123304 2.422272 2.808080 3.373637 4.253895 5.766382 9.460025
2025-03-16 2.027038 2.328064 2.723059 3.316098 4.274810 6.035980 11.106645
2025-03-23 1.983346 2.298270 2.720834 3.376496 4.495785 6.776759 15.818973
2025-03-30 1.900939 2.210845 2.630542 3.290900 4.445499 6.916268 18.792181
2025-04-06 1.824039 2.126725 2.539261 3.194679 4.360238 6.945908 21.665913
2025-04-13 1.764722 2.063702 2.474298 3.134318 4.332761 7.116280 27.813703
2025-04-20 1.742153 2.049803 2.479004 3.186138 4.529424 8.000588 100.783115
2025-04-27 1.729239 2.048264 2.501142 3.268402 4.806013 9.384112 NaN
2025-05-04 1.695049 2.016573 2.478266 3.275333 4.933948 10.458330 NaN
2025-05-11 1.666747 1.992083 2.464986 3.298232 5.107009 12.049374 NaN
2025-05-18 1.617116 1.934797 2.397864 3.217635 5.015077 12.170888 NaN
2025-05-25 1.590894 1.910374 2.380608 3.226997 5.150765 13.986236 NaN
2025-06-01 1.563136 1.882519 2.356295 3.220672 5.245607 15.915769 NaN
2025-06-08 1.527621 1.842006 2.309908 3.168506 5.206508 16.678202 NaN
2025-06-15 1.516119 1.836359 2.318791 3.223265 5.481073 22.674507 NaN
2025-06-22 1.479198 1.791727 2.262607 3.145629 5.351150 22.213790 NaN
2025-06-29 1.441910 1.745717 2.202854 3.058100 5.182284 20.806569 NaN
2025-07-06 1.412567 1.710928 2.160397 3.003054 5.106461 21.119320 NaN
2025-07-13 1.404478 1.707607 2.169006 3.050318 5.353175 31.166479 NaN